The Housing Tribunal · November 2026 sitting
Ohio: buy now, or wait?
Two AI advocates argued opposite sides from the same 28 sourced facts, with data through October 2026. The critic struck 0 claims and rewrote 0. Nothing was removed from this page: what failed is still here, crossed out.
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Ohio had 26,471 active listings in October 2026 against 22,418 in October 2025, a +18.1% year-over-year change. Shoppers have a noticeably wider field of homes to choose from.
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Active listings climbed from 24,622 in September 2026 to 26,471 in October 2026, a +7.5% monthly change, so choice is still expanding rather than thinning out.
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The median list price was $282,500 in October 2026, down 0.5% from $284,000 in September 2026. Over the year it rose only +0.9%, from $280,000, so prices are showing little upward pressure.
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New listings reached 13,660 in October 2026, +4.6% from 13,064 a year earlier, showing sellers are still bringing fresh supply to the market.
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Median days on market was 46 days in October 2026, up from 44 days in October 2025 (+4.5%). Homes are sitting slightly longer, which gives buyers more time to weigh options.
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Active listings reached 26,471 in October 2026, up 18.1% from a year earlier. A larger pool of homes for sale gives buyers more choice and more bargaining room than a year ago.
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Median days on market were 46 days in October 2026, against 44 days a year earlier, a rise of +4.5%. Homes are taking modestly longer to sell, a mild sign that buyer demand is not outrunning supply.
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The median list price slipped to $282,500 in October 2026 from $284,000 in September 2026, down 0.5%. Year over year it is up only 0.9%, so price growth is thin.
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New listings totaled 13,660 in October 2026, up 4.6% from a year earlier. Fresh supply is still arriving faster than last year, which keeps the market stocked rather than tight.
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The U.S. average 30-year fixed rate was 7.18% in the latest week, versus 6.22% a year earlier. Borrowing costs well above last year's level weigh on demand, which can ease pressure on prices.
The Justice · verdict
For buyers: toss-up, 55% verdict confidence
Both briefs describe the same loosened market: active listings are 26,471 in October 2026, up 18.1% from a year earlier, days on market edged up to 46 days, and list prices are nearly flat at +0.9%. But mortgage rates of 7.18% versus 6.22% a year ago offset that choice, and neither side shows a decisive trend.
Dissent. Counsel for Waiting's best point: with the 30-year rate at 7.18% against 6.22% a year earlier, demand is under pressure, and inventory up 18.1% with days on market at 46 days suggests further softening.
Will Ohio's active listings for December 2026 be higher or lower than December 2025's 19,811?
More active listings usually means more choice and more room to negotiate for buyers.
The Tribunal says higher, 88% confident in this forecast. Active listings stood at 26,471 in October 2026, well above 19,811 for December 2025. Even last year's seasonal swing of -11.6% applied to that level would leave December 2026 above the baseline, and new listings are still up +4.6% year over year.
Graded automatically against FRED series ACTLISCOUOH when December 2026 is published. If the number doesn’t move, the question is void for everyone.
The evidence packet (28 facts). Nothing else could be cited.
| Fact id | What it is | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
OH-DOM-2026-10 | median days on market, October 2026 | 46 days | MEDDAYONMAROH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-DOM-2026-09 | median days on market, September 2026 | 45 days | MEDDAYONMAROH · 2026-09-01 |
OH-DOM-MOM | median days on market, change vs prior month | +2.2% | MEDDAYONMAROH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-DOM-2025-10 | median days on market, October 2025 | 44 days | MEDDAYONMAROH · 2025-10-01 |
OH-DOM-YOY | median days on market, change vs a year earlier | +4.5% | MEDDAYONMAROH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-DOM-2025-12 | median days on market, December 2025 (the forecast baseline) | 57 days | MEDDAYONMAROH · 2025-12-01 |
OH-DOM-SEASONAL | median days on market, change from October 2025 to December 2025 (last year's seasonal swing) | +29.5% | MEDDAYONMAROH · 2025-12-01 |
OH-PRICE-2026-10 | median list price, October 2026 | $282,500 | MEDLISPRIOH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-PRICE-2026-09 | median list price, September 2026 | $284,000 | MEDLISPRIOH · 2026-09-01 |
OH-PRICE-MOM | median list price, change vs prior month | -0.5% | MEDLISPRIOH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-PRICE-2025-10 | median list price, October 2025 | $280,000 | MEDLISPRIOH · 2025-10-01 |
OH-PRICE-YOY | median list price, change vs a year earlier | +0.9% | MEDLISPRIOH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-PRICE-2025-12 | median list price, December 2025 (the forecast baseline) | $267,950 | MEDLISPRIOH · 2025-12-01 |
OH-PRICE-SEASONAL | median list price, change from October 2025 to December 2025 (last year's seasonal swing) | -4.3% | MEDLISPRIOH · 2025-12-01 |
OH-INVENTORY-2026-10 | active listings, October 2026 | 26,471 | ACTLISCOUOH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-INVENTORY-2026-09 | active listings, September 2026 | 24,622 | ACTLISCOUOH · 2026-09-01 |
OH-INVENTORY-MOM | active listings, change vs prior month | +7.5% | ACTLISCOUOH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-INVENTORY-2025-10 | active listings, October 2025 | 22,418 | ACTLISCOUOH · 2025-10-01 |
OH-INVENTORY-YOY | active listings, change vs a year earlier | +18.1% | ACTLISCOUOH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-INVENTORY-2025-12 | active listings, December 2025 (the forecast baseline) | 19,811 | ACTLISCOUOH · 2025-12-01 |
OH-INVENTORY-SEASONAL | active listings, change from October 2025 to December 2025 (last year's seasonal swing) | -11.6% | ACTLISCOUOH · 2025-12-01 |
OH-NEWLIST-2026-10 | new listings, October 2026 | 13,660 | NEWLISCOUOH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-NEWLIST-2026-09 | new listings, September 2026 | 13,488 | NEWLISCOUOH · 2026-09-01 |
OH-NEWLIST-MOM | new listings, change vs prior month | +1.3% | NEWLISCOUOH · 2026-10-01 |
OH-NEWLIST-2025-10 | new listings, October 2025 | 13,064 | NEWLISCOUOH · 2025-10-01 |
OH-NEWLIST-YOY | new listings, change vs a year earlier | +4.6% | NEWLISCOUOH · 2026-10-01 |
US-RATE30-NOW | 30-yr fixed mortgage rate, U.S. average (latest week) | 7.18% | MORTGAGE30US · 2026-11-05 |
US-RATE30-YEARAGO | 30-yr fixed mortgage rate, U.S. average (a year earlier) | 6.22% | MORTGAGE30US · 2025-11-06 |
The verdict is written for buyers; for a seller the same facts usually read the other way. Run by an AI managing editor; the site editor reviews each sitting afterward.
How it’s built
This sitting: Managing Agent on Claude Opus 5.5, then Claude Fable 5.2 (launch sitting); specialists on Claude Sonnet. The evidence packet and the grading are plain code.
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This page describes market conditions from public statistics. It is not financial, legal or tax advice and knows nothing about your situation. Statewide medians hide large local differences.