The Housing Tribunal · November 2026 sitting
Texas: buy now, or wait?
Two AI advocates argued opposite sides from the same 28 sourced facts, with data through October 2026. The critic struck 0 claims and rewrote 0. Nothing was removed from this page: what failed is still here, crossed out.
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Texas's median list price was $350,000 in October 2026, down 2.8% from $360,000 a year earlier, so buyers face lower asking prices than twelve months ago.
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The median list price also slipped 1.6% in one month, from $355,765 in September 2026 to $350,000 in October 2026, a further step down on top of the yearly decline.
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Active listings stood at 135,141 in October 2026, up 0.5% from 134,503 a year earlier, so selection is at least as broad as last year's.
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Median days on market was 68 days in October 2026 against 69 days a year earlier, so homes are not selling noticeably faster than last year.
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Texas's median list price was $350,000 in October 2026, down 2.8% from $360,000 a year earlier, a year-over-year comparison that sidesteps the seasonal calendar and shows asking prices running lower.
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Median days on market reached 68 days in October 2026, up 3.0% from 66 days in September 2026, a sign listings are lingering a little longer, though the figure is still slightly below last October's 69 days.
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Active listings stood at 135,141 in October 2026, up 0.5% from 134,503 a year earlier. Supply is holding at or slightly above last year's level, so the market is not showing a squeeze in available homes.
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Last year, median list price fell 2.8% between October 2025 and December 2025, and days on market rose 10.1%. Those are normal seasonal swings, so softer readings ahead would fit the usual calendar rather than signal a new trend.
The Justice · verdict
For buyers: toss-up, 55% verdict confidence
Both briefs rest on facts the Red Pen kept. Median list price of $350,000 is down 2.8% from a year earlier, a point for moving now. But active listings are up 0.5% and days on market are 68 days against 69 days, so conditions are close to last year's. The price softness is not yet matched by clearly faster sales or broader supply.
Dissent. Waiting's best point: days on market rose 3.0% in a month to 68 days, and last year's October-to-December swings were seasonal, so softer readings ahead may reflect the calendar, not a lasting buyer advantage.
Will Texas's median list price for December 2026 be higher or lower than December 2025's $350,000?
Lower asking prices favor buyers; higher ones favor sellers.
The Tribunal says lower, 65% confident in this forecast. The median list price is already $350,000 in October 2026, equal to the December 2025 baseline of $350,000. Last year's October-to-December swing was -2.8%, and a similar seasonal softening would leave December 2026 below the baseline.
Graded automatically against FRED series MEDLISPRITX when December 2026 is published. If the number doesn’t move, the question is void for everyone.
The evidence packet (28 facts). Nothing else could be cited.
| Fact id | What it is | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
TX-DOM-2026-10 | median days on market, October 2026 | 68 days | MEDDAYONMARTX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-DOM-2026-09 | median days on market, September 2026 | 66 days | MEDDAYONMARTX · 2026-09-01 |
TX-DOM-MOM | median days on market, change vs prior month | +3.0% | MEDDAYONMARTX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-DOM-2025-10 | median days on market, October 2025 | 69 days | MEDDAYONMARTX · 2025-10-01 |
TX-DOM-YOY | median days on market, change vs a year earlier | -1.4% | MEDDAYONMARTX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-DOM-2025-12 | median days on market, December 2025 (the forecast baseline) | 76 days | MEDDAYONMARTX · 2025-12-01 |
TX-DOM-SEASONAL | median days on market, change from October 2025 to December 2025 (last year's seasonal swing) | +10.1% | MEDDAYONMARTX · 2025-12-01 |
TX-PRICE-2026-10 | median list price, October 2026 | $350,000 | MEDLISPRITX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-PRICE-2026-09 | median list price, September 2026 | $355,765 | MEDLISPRITX · 2026-09-01 |
TX-PRICE-MOM | median list price, change vs prior month | -1.6% | MEDLISPRITX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-PRICE-2025-10 | median list price, October 2025 | $360,000 | MEDLISPRITX · 2025-10-01 |
TX-PRICE-YOY | median list price, change vs a year earlier | -2.8% | MEDLISPRITX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-PRICE-2025-12 | median list price, December 2025 (the forecast baseline) | $350,000 | MEDLISPRITX · 2025-12-01 |
TX-PRICE-SEASONAL | median list price, change from October 2025 to December 2025 (last year's seasonal swing) | -2.8% | MEDLISPRITX · 2025-12-01 |
TX-INVENTORY-2026-10 | active listings, October 2026 | 135,141 | ACTLISCOUTX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-INVENTORY-2026-09 | active listings, September 2026 | 137,129 | ACTLISCOUTX · 2026-09-01 |
TX-INVENTORY-MOM | active listings, change vs prior month | -1.4% | ACTLISCOUTX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-INVENTORY-2025-10 | active listings, October 2025 | 134,503 | ACTLISCOUTX · 2025-10-01 |
TX-INVENTORY-YOY | active listings, change vs a year earlier | +0.5% | ACTLISCOUTX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-INVENTORY-2025-12 | active listings, December 2025 (the forecast baseline) | 122,298 | ACTLISCOUTX · 2025-12-01 |
TX-INVENTORY-SEASONAL | active listings, change from October 2025 to December 2025 (last year's seasonal swing) | -9.1% | ACTLISCOUTX · 2025-12-01 |
TX-NEWLIST-2026-10 | new listings, October 2026 | 32,020 | NEWLISCOUTX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-NEWLIST-2026-09 | new listings, September 2026 | 34,142 | NEWLISCOUTX · 2026-09-01 |
TX-NEWLIST-MOM | new listings, change vs prior month | -6.2% | NEWLISCOUTX · 2026-10-01 |
TX-NEWLIST-2025-10 | new listings, October 2025 | 36,932 | NEWLISCOUTX · 2025-10-01 |
TX-NEWLIST-YOY | new listings, change vs a year earlier | -13.3% | NEWLISCOUTX · 2026-10-01 |
US-RATE30-NOW | 30-yr fixed mortgage rate, U.S. average (latest week) | 7.18% | MORTGAGE30US · 2026-11-05 |
US-RATE30-YEARAGO | 30-yr fixed mortgage rate, U.S. average (a year earlier) | 6.22% | MORTGAGE30US · 2025-11-06 |
The verdict is written for buyers; for a seller the same facts usually read the other way. Run by an AI managing editor; the site editor reviews each sitting afterward.
How it’s built
This sitting: Managing Agent on Claude Opus 5.5, then Claude Fable 5.2 (launch sitting); specialists on Claude Sonnet. The evidence packet and the grading are plain code.
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This page describes market conditions from public statistics. It is not financial, legal or tax advice and knows nothing about your situation. Statewide medians hide large local differences.